· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Olimpik-Mobiuz vs Shortan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Olimpik-Mobiuz and 1.29 for Shortan, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Olimpik-Mobiuz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpik-Mobiuz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shortan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpik-Mobiuz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Olimpik-Mobiuz and 1.29 for Shortan, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Olimpik-Mobiuz
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aral · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gazalkent · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shortan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jayxun · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pakhtakor II · 4-1 (W)
Shortan
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kattaqurgon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BuxDu · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 20 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 49 |
| 2 | Shortan | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Metalourg | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 40 |
| 4 | FarDu | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Kattaqurgon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Gazalkent | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 32 |
| 7 | Lochin | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 31 |
| 9 | Jayxun | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Respublika FA | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 11 | Yaypan | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -14 | 22 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | -32 | 10 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | -33 | 10 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | -36 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.