Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti · Analysis updated 21:05 UTC
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.38 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olimpo Bahia Blanca win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 31% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.38 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–024.6%
- 0–020.2%
- 2–015.0%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–17.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.40 (model 77.7% vs market 66.3%, edge +11.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.40 | 66.3% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +11.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.4% | 88.5% | 1.13 | +6.1 |
| Double chance | Home/AwayValue | 1.44 | 65.8% | 69.3% | 1.44 | +3.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 57.5% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 8.00 | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.70 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.2% | 30.7% | 3.26 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.8% | 42.2% | 2.37 | -9.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.75 | 33.7% | 22.3% | 4.48 | -11.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpo Bahia Blanca win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.