Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti · Analysis updated 08:05 UTC
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.38 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined total of 1.03. That distribution gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 45%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 9% for over 2.5 goals and 15% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 36%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw
45.0% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 0.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kimberley Mar del Plata away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 37% / 45% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.38 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined 1.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
55%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–035.6%
- 1–023.3%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
Kimberley Mar del Plata
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 15% and over 2.5 goals at 9%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.