Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.71 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olimpo Bahia Blanca win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kimberley Mar del Plata away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.71 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.14 | 81.4% | 83.9% | 1.19 | +2.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 70.5% | 72.3% | 1.38 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.8% | 19.1% | 5.24 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 52.4% | 53.2% | 1.88 | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.50 | 37.5% | 38.2% | 2.62 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.44 | 64.5% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 47.0% | 46.8% | 2.14 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.62 | 35.5% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.50 | 62.5% | 61.8% | 1.62 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 82.5% | 80.9% | 1.24 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.7% | 27.7% | 3.61 | -2.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 5.00 | 18.6% | 16.1% | 6.21 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
Kimberley Mar del Plata
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpo Bahia Blanca win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.