Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti · Analysis updated 20:51 UTC
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.57 for San Martin Formosa, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olimpo Bahia Blanca win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Martin Formosa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 32% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.57 for San Martin Formosa, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.6%
- 0–018.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–110.4%
Recent form
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
San Martin Formosa
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpo Bahia Blanca win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.