Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti · Analysis updated 06:04 UTC
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Santamarina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.38 for Santamarina, a combined total of 1.17. That distribution gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 12% for over 2.5 goals and 17% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 31%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
83.9% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santamarina away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 41% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.38 for Santamarina, a combined 1.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–030.9%
- 1–024.7%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–09.9%
- 1–19.3%
Recent form
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
Santamarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 83.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 17% and over 2.5 goals at 12%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.