Oliveirense vs Louletano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Oliveirense and 1.07 for Louletano, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Oliveirense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oliveirense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Louletano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oliveirense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Oliveirense and 1.07 for Louletano, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Oliveirense win45%

Draw27%

Louletano win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.9%
0–19.1%
2–18.9%
0–08.5%

Recent form

Oliveirense

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mafra · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético CP · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Penalva Castelo · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 3-2 (W)

Louletano

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Santarém · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Castrense · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · Oliveirense 0-0 Louletano (Liga 3)

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	6	4	1	1	4	13
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Leça	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
4	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Mafra	6	2	2	2	4	8
5	Fafe	6	2	3	1	4	9
5	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
7	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.