Oliveirense vs Mafra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Oliveirense and 1.38 for Mafra, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Mafra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oliveirense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mafra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mafra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Oliveirense and 1.38 for Mafra, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Oliveirense win35%

Draw26%

Mafra win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–19.7%
1–09.0%
1–28.5%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Oliveirense

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mafra · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético CP · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Penalva Castelo · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 3-2 (W)

Mafra

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tirsense · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	6	4	1	1	4	13
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Leça	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
4	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Mafra	6	2	2	2	4	8
5	Fafe	6	2	3	1	4	9
5	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
7	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.