Estadio Carlos Osorio · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Oliveirense and 1.31 for Penalva Castelo, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Oliveirense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oliveirense win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oliveirense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oliveirense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Oliveirense and 1.31 for Penalva Castelo, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 65%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Oliveirense
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mafra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético CP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Penalva Castelo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 3-2 (W)
Penalva Castelo
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 0-4 (L)
- 2018-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Anadia · 1-3 (L)
- 2016-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 0-4 (L)
- 2016-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oliveirense win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.