Estadio Carlos Osorio · Analysis updated 00:55 UTC
Oliveirense vs União Santarém Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Oliveirense and 1.04 for União Santarém, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Oliveirense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Oliveirense win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oliveirense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União Santarém away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oliveirense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Oliveirense and 1.04 for União Santarém, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Oliveirense
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mafra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético CP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Penalva Castelo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 3-2 (W)
União Santarém
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merelinense · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Fafe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Leça | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Mafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | São João Ver | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Vianense | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Caldas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Varzim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | SC Covilha | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 | Guimaraes B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Trofense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oliveirense win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.