OKMK Sport Majmuasi · Referee A. Shukrullayev · Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Olmaliq vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Olmaliq and 1.50 for Dinamo Samarqand, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Olmaliq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olmaliq home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Samarqand away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Olmaliq
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogdiana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Surkhon · 0-0 (D)
Dinamo Samarqand
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxoro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Olmaliq 0-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2026-04-23T15:15:00.000Z · Olmaliq 2-2 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Olmaliq 0-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2025-04-06T15:15:00.000Z · Olmaliq 0-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2024-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Olmaliq 2-3 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2024-03-17T13:45:00.000Z · Olmaliq 3-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2022-10-26T13:30:00.000Z · Olmaliq 4-0 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2022-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · Olmaliq 2-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2019-09-14T13:30:00.000Z · Olmaliq 3-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
- 2019-05-11T12:30:00.000Z · Olmaliq 0-1 Dinamo Samarqand (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Nasaf | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 41 |
| 5 | Buxoro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Olmaliq | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 39 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Qizilqum | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 33 |
| 9 | Andijan | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand-1912 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | -38 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.