· Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Oltrepò vs Pavia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Oltrepò and 1.42 for Pavia, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Pavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pavia win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oltrepò home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pavia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pavia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 27% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Oltrepò and 1.42 for Pavia, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.3%
- 0–212.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Oltrepò
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontedera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella Vis Modena · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Varese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lentigione · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Sesto · 1-6 (L)
Pavia
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs USD Casatese · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pistoiese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varesina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Correggese · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · Oltrepò 0-3 Pavia (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2026-01-18T13:30:00.000Z · Oltrepò 0-0 Pavia (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2025-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · Oltrepò 0-1 Pavia (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2025-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Oltrepò 0-2 Pavia (Coppa Italia Serie D)
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sant'Angelo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Città di Varese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | USD Casatese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Pavia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Solbiatese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Correggese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Crema | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Varesina | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coriano | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pavia win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.