· Analysis updated 19:39 UTC
Oltul Curtişoara vs Vulturii Fărcăşeşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Oltul Curtişoara and 1.72 for Vulturii Fărcăşeşti, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Oltul Curtişoara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oltul Curtişoara home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oltul Curtişoara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Oltul Curtişoara and 1.72 for Vulturii Fărcăşeşti, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.4%
Recent form
Oltul Curtişoara
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Hartiesti · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Balș · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Păușești · 1-0 (W)
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Minerul Lupeni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Păușești · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Filiaşi · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltul Curtişoara · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | CSM Targu Jiu | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | CS U Craiova II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Filiaşi | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Oltul Curtişoara | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Unirea Bascov | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Păușești | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -32 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.