· Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Olympia Christnach vs Wiltz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Olympia Christnach and 2.06 for Wiltz, a combined total of 4.22. That distribution gives Olympia Christnach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympia Christnach home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiltz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympia Christnach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 20% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Olympia Christnach and 2.06 for Wiltz, a combined 4.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.2%
Recent form
Olympia Christnach
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 2-6 (L)
- 2024-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yellow Boys Weiler · 1-5 (L)
- 2024-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kopstal 33 · 2-1 (W)
- 2023-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 0-5 (L)
- 2023-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Esch · 4-3 (W)
Wiltz
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandweiler · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Progres Niederkorn · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.