· Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Olympia Yerevan vs Sardarapat 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Olympia Yerevan and 0.84 for Sardarapat 2, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Olympia Yerevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olympia Yerevan win
77.2% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sardarapat 2 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympia Yerevan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Olympia Yerevan and 0.84 for Sardarapat 2, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Olympia Yerevan
Sardarapat 2
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lernayin Artsakh · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 2 | Andranik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pyunik II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Mika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Sardarapat 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Banants II | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olympia Yerevan win, at 77.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.