Karaiskakis Stadium · Referee Alejandro Hernandez · Analysis updated 06:13 UTC
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.90 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Olympiakos Piraeus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympiakos Piraeus home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Panathinaikos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.90 for Panathinaikos, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 58.5% vs market 50.0%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 58.5% | 1.71 | +8.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 42.6% | 42.9% | 2.33 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.4% | 1.38 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.0% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.8% | 27.6% | 3.62 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 41.5% | 2.41 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Olympiakos Piraeus
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levadiakos · 1-0 (W)
Panathinaikos
- 2026-10-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalamata · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 17 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Kifisia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.