GSP Stadium · Analysis updated 05:26 UTC
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Olympiakos and 2.20 for Apollon Limassol, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Apollon Limassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Apollon Limassol win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympiakos home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apollon Limassol away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Apollon Limassol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 20% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Olympiakos and 2.20 for Apollon Limassol, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.6%
- 2–16.1%
Recent form
Olympiakos
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 1-0 (W)
Apollon Limassol
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krasava Ypsonas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apollon Limassol | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | AEL | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Apoel Nicosia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Apollon Limassol win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.