GSP Stadium · Referee Marios Christoforou, Cyprus · Analysis updated 08:01 UTC
Olympiakos vs Krasava Ypsonas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Olympiakos and 1.58 for Krasava Ypsonas, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Olympiakos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olympiakos win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympiakos home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Krasava Ypsonas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympiakos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Olympiakos and 1.58 for Krasava Ypsonas, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Olympiakos
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 1-0 (W)
Krasava Ypsonas
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enosis · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Apollon Limassol | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AEL | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Aris | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olympiakos win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.