Stade de la Neuville · Analysis updated 04:13 UTC
Olympic Charleroi vs Standard Liège II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.67 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Standard Liège II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Standard Liège II win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympic Charleroi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Standard Liège II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Standard Liège II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 24% / 24% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.67 for Standard Liège II, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Olympic Charleroi
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochefort · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RWDM · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Charleroi II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Meux · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flénu · 4-3 (W)
Standard Liège II
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Saint-Gilloise II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Habay-la-Neuve · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meux · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Habay-la-Neuve | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Onhaye | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Flénu | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Standard Liège II win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.