Olympic Varna vs Botev Novi Pazar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Olympic Varna and 2.23 for Botev Novi Pazar, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Botev Novi Pazar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Botev Novi Pazar win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Olympic Varna home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Botev Novi Pazar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botev Novi Pazar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Olympic Varna and 2.23 for Botev Novi Pazar, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Olympic Varna win35%

Draw20%

Botev Novi Pazar win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

1–27.4%
2–27.2%
1–16.7%
2–16.5%
1–35.5%

Recent form

Olympic Varna

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Aksakovo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets Balchik · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernolomets 1919 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets III · 1-5 (L)

Botev Novi Pazar

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets III · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-22T13:30:00.000Z · Olympic Varna 1-2 Botev Novi Pazar (Third League - Northeast)
2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Olympic Varna 3-0 Botev Novi Pazar (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ludogorets III	11	9	1	1	23	28
2	Volov Shumen	11	7	2	2	19	23
3	Chernomorets Balchik	10	7	2	1	10	23
4	Chernolomets 1919	11	6	3	2	15	21
5	Svetkavitsa 14	11	6	1	4	5	19
6	Botev Novi Pazar	9	4	3	2	5	15
7	Septemvri Tervel	9	4	3	2	3	15
8	Cherno more II	10	4	2	4	5	14
9	Benkovski Isperih	9	4	2	3	3	14
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Olympic Varna	10	4	0	6	-6	12
12	Devnya 2005	10	3	1	6	-10	10
13	Riltzi	10	3	1	6	-12	10
14	Aksakovo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	2	1	7	-11	7
16	Fratria II	10	2	1	7	-20	7
17	Dorostol	10	0	1	9	-19	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Botev Novi Pazar win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.