Goodwin Park · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Olympic vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Olympic and 2.16 for Moreton City Excelsior, a combined total of 3.94. That distribution gives Moreton City Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Moreton City Excelsior win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympic home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moreton City Excelsior away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moreton City Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Olympic and 2.16 for Moreton City Excelsior, a combined 3.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–35.8%
Recent form
Olympic
- 2026-09-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane Roar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Rochedale Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreton City Excelsior · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Magic United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane Roar II · 3-1 (W)
Moreton City Excelsior
- 2026-09-05T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Peninsula Power · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Gold Coast Knights · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Roar II · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -4 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -26 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -18 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | -20 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Moreton City Excelsior win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.