· Analysis updated 04:10 UTC
Olympic vs Saku Sporting Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Olympic and 2.71 for Saku Sporting, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Saku Sporting the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Saku Sporting win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 2.71
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Olympic home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saku Sporting away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saku Sporting to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 23% / 18% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Olympic and 2.71 for Saku Sporting, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.5%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–15.5%
Recent form
Olympic
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saku Sporting · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TransferWise · 6-3 (W)
- 2025-06-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tulevik · 0-6 (L)
- 2024-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 0-11 (L)
- 2023-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-8 (L)
Saku Sporting
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-03T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna FC Zapoos · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-31T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kompanii Marjamaa · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-06-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raplamaa · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Saku Sporting win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.