· Analysis updated 22:37 UTC
Omarska vs Drina Zvornik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Omarska and 1.13 for Drina Zvornik, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Drina Zvornik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omarska home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drina Zvornik away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 59.3% vs market 47.0%, edge +12.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.0% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +12.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 39.7% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.2% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.5% | 59.7% | 1.68 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.1% | 30.2% | 3.31 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.2% | 69.9% | 1.43 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 30.1% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.0% | 40.7% | 2.46 | -12.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Omarska
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Majevica Lopare · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Potkozarje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska Foča · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda 09 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Vlasenica · 0-0 (D)
Drina Zvornik
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Omarska · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Prijedor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laktaši · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska Foča · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavija · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Omarska 1-1 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2025-11-08T12:00:00.000Z · Omarska 0-5 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2025-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · Omarska 1-1 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2024-03-10T13:00:00.000Z · Omarska 0-0 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2023-08-19T15:30:00.000Z · Omarska 1-1 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2023-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · Omarska 1-3 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2022-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · Omarska 3-0 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2022-05-21T15:00:00.000Z · Omarska 2-2 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
- 2021-11-13T12:00:00.000Z · Omarska 1-2 Drina Zvornik (1st League - RS)
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 33 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Potkozarje | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Majevica Lopare | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Kozara Gradiška | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Famos Vojkovići | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 | Rudar Prijedor | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Slavija | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Sutjeska Foča | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Velež Nevesinje | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 11 |
| 13 | Omarska | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.