· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Omarska vs Kozara Gradiška Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Omarska and 0.70 for Kozara Gradiška, a combined total of 1.33. That distribution gives Kozara Gradiška the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 40%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.4% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omarska home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kozara Gradiška away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 28% / 40% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Omarska and 0.70 for Kozara Gradiška, a combined 1.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
60%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.6%
- 0–118.6%
- 1–016.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–26.5%
Recent form
Omarska
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Majevica Lopare · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Potkozarje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska Foča · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda 09 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Vlasenica · 0-0 (D)
Kozara Gradiška
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska Foča · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Velež Nevesinje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Romanija Pale · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | FK Majevica Lopare | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Kozara Gradiška | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Potkozarje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Rudar Prijedor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Velež Nevesinje | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 11 |
| 10 | Famos Vojkovići | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Sutjeska Foča | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Omarska | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.