Gradski Stadion Omarska · Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Omarska vs Sutjeska Foča Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Omarska and 1.33 for Sutjeska Foča, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Omarska the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omarska home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sutjeska Foča away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Omarska
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Majevica Lopare · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Potkozarje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska Foča · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda 09 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Vlasenica · 0-0 (D)
Sutjeska Foča
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Omarska · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar Prijedor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · Omarska 0-1 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2026-06-03T15:00:00.000Z · Omarska 3-0 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2026-04-26T14:30:00.000Z · Omarska 2-1 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2025-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · Omarska 2-3 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2024-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Omarska 1-2 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2023-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Omarska 1-3 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2023-04-26T17:00:00.000Z · Omarska 2-3 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2022-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · Omarska 2-1 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2022-03-06T13:00:00.000Z · Omarska 0-1 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
- 2021-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · Omarska 1-1 Sutjeska Foča (1st League - RS)
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 33 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Potkozarje | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Majevica Lopare | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Kozara Gradiška | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Rudar Prijedor | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 8 | FK Romanija Pale | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 18 |
| 9 | Famos Vojkovići | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Slavija | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Sutjeska Foča | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Velež Nevesinje | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 11 |
| 13 | Omarska | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.