Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.34 for Iwaki, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Omiya Ardija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Omiya Ardija win

53.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Omiya Ardija home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iwaki away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Omiya Ardija win54%

Draw21%

Iwaki win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–19.3%
2–07.1%
1–06.9%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Omiya Ardija

2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-1 (D)

Iwaki

2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-04T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-06T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 3-2 Iwaki (J2/J3 League)
2026-03-07T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-1 Iwaki (J2/J3 League)
2025-07-05T10:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-2 Iwaki (J2 League)
2025-04-29T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-2 Iwaki (J2 League)
2025-03-26T10:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 3-3 Iwaki (J-League Cup)
2023-06-24T09:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-5 Iwaki (J2 League)
2023-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-2 Iwaki (J2 League)

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	8	3	2	11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	8	2	3	-2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	6	4	3	11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	6	4	3	9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	7	21
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	5	5	3	3	20
7	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	7	19
8	Shonan Bellmare	12	4	7	1	2	19
9	Sagan Tosu	13	5	2	6	-1	17
10	Tokushima Vortis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
11	Consadole Sapporo	13	5	2	6	-3	17
12	Iwaki	12	5	1	6	1	16
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	4	4	5	0	16
14	Fujieda MYFC	13	3	6	4	1	15
15	Jubilo Iwata	12	4	3	5	-1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	4	2	7	-12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	4	1	8	-2	13
18	Tochigi City	12	3	3	6	-1	12
19	Imabari	13	3	2	8	-11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	3	2	8	-17	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Omiya Ardija win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.