Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.25 for Kataller Toyama, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Omiya Ardija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Omiya Ardija home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kataller Toyama away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Omiya Ardija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.25 for Kataller Toyama, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Omiya Ardija win42%

Draw26%

Kataller Toyama win33%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.7%
2–18.8%
0–18.4%
1–27.6%

Recent form

Omiya Ardija

2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-1 (D)

Kataller Toyama

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Consadole Sapporo · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	8	3	2	11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	8	2	3	-2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	6	4	3	11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	6	4	3	9	22
5	Shonan Bellmare	13	5	7	1	3	22
6	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	7	21
7	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	7	19
9	Iwaki	13	5	2	6	1	17
10	Sagan Tosu	13	5	2	6	-1	17
11	Tokushima Vortis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Consadole Sapporo	13	5	2	6	-3	17
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	4	4	5	0	16
14	Jubilo Iwata	13	4	4	5	-1	16
15	Fujieda MYFC	13	3	6	4	1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	4	2	7	-12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	4	1	8	-2	13
18	Tochigi City	13	3	3	7	-2	12
19	Imabari	13	3	2	8	-11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	3	2	8	-17	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.