NACK5 Stadium Omiya · Referee R. Tanaka · Analysis updated 10:41 UTC
Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Omiya Ardija and 0.75 for Ventforet Kofu, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Omiya Ardija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Omiya Ardija win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omiya Ardija home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ventforet Kofu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Omiya Ardija
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 2-3 (L)
Ventforet Kofu
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Oita Trinita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 5-1 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
- 2026-04-29T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-2 Ventforet Kofu (J2/J3 League)
- 2026-03-28T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-2 Ventforet Kofu (J2/J3 League)
- 2025-07-12T09:30:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 0-1 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
- 2025-02-22T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-0 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
- 2023-10-29T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 0-2 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
- 2023-05-27T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-5 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
- 2022-09-10T09:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 3-0 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
- 2022-04-09T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-3 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
- 2021-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 0-1 Ventforet Kofu (J2 League)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omiya Ardija win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.