NACK5 Stadium Omiya · Analysis updated 06:41 UTC
Omiya Ardija vs Yokohama FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.25 for Yokohama FC, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Omiya Ardija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omiya Ardija home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yokohama FC away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Omiya Ardija
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 2-3 (L)
Yokohama FC
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tochigi City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Urawa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Oita Trinita · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-2 Yokohama FC (J2/J3 League)
- 2022-08-06T10:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 3-2 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
- 2022-02-19T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 2-3 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
- 2019-09-15T09:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 0-0 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
- 2019-04-14T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 2-1 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
- 2018-10-21T05:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-1 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
- 2018-06-10T07:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 4-0 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
- 2016-11-09T10:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 1-0 Yokohama FC (Emperor Cup)
- 2015-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 3-0 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
- 2015-06-21T09:00:00.000Z · Omiya Ardija 3-0 Yokohama FC (J2 League)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.