Katokopia Stadium · Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Omonia 29is Maiou vs Nea Salamis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Omonia 29is Maiou and 1.95 for Nea Salamis, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Omonia 29is Maiou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omonia 29is Maiou home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nea Salamis away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Omonia 29is Maiou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 20% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Omonia 29is Maiou and 1.95 for Nea Salamis, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
Omonia 29is Maiou
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Larnaca · 1-2 (L)
Nea Salamis
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Apollon Limassol | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AEL | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Aris | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.