Antonis Papadopoulos Stadium · Referee D. Solomou · Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
Omonia Aradippou vs Olympiakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Omonia Aradippou and 1.43 for Olympiakos, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Omonia Aradippou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Omonia Aradippou win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omonia Aradippou home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olympiakos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Omonia Aradippou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Omonia Aradippou and 1.43 for Olympiakos, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Omonia Aradippou
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-0 (W)
Olympiakos
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Omonia Aradippou | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Krasava Ypsonas | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omonia Aradippou win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.