GSP Stadium · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Omonia Nicosia vs AEL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia and 0.83 for AEL, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Omonia Nicosia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Omonia Nicosia win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omonia Nicosia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AEL away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Omonia Nicosia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 0.83 for AEL, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Omonia Nicosia
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 4-1 (W)
AEL
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omonia Nicosia win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.