GSP Stadium · Referee Kyriakos Athanasiou, Cyprus · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Omonia Nicosia vs Apollon Limassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia and 0.79 for Apollon Limassol, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Omonia Nicosia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Omonia Nicosia win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omonia Nicosia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apollon Limassol away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 58.1% vs market 45.3%, edge +12.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +12.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 45.7% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.4% | 79.7% | 1.25 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.5% | 26.7% | 3.75 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 53.0% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.9% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -12.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Omonia Nicosia
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 4-1 (W)
Apollon Limassol
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 0-0 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2026-05-22T14:30:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 5-2 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 3-2 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2026-03-02T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-1 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 0-2 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2025-04-01T15:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-3 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2025-02-24T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-1 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2024-11-23T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 3-1 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
- 2024-02-04T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 2-1 Apollon Limassol (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omonia Nicosia win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.