GSP Stadium · Referee C. Konstantinos · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Omonia Nicosia vs Krasava Ypsonas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia and 0.58 for Krasava Ypsonas, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Omonia Nicosia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Omonia Nicosia win
76.6% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omonia Nicosia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Krasava Ypsonas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Omonia Nicosia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 16% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 0.58 for Krasava Ypsonas, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.8%
- 1–012.8%
- 3–011.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 60.3% vs market 54.7%, edge +5.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +5.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.20 | 22.8% | 23.4% | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 91.9% | 92.4% | 1.08 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 76.5% | 76.6% | 1.31 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 15.8% | 15.8% | 6.33 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 12.00 | 7.7% | 7.6% | 13.16 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 85.3% | 84.2% | 1.19 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -5.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Omonia Nicosia
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-0 (W)
Krasava Ypsonas
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enosis · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 4-1 Krasava Ypsonas (1. Division)
- 2026-02-01T14:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Krasava Ypsonas (1. Division)
- 2025-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 2-1 Krasava Ypsonas (1. Division)
- 2024-01-18T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 3-0 Krasava Ypsonas (Cup)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omonia Nicosia win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.