Alphamega Stadium · Referee I. Christodoulou · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Omonia Nicosia vs Pafos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia and 1.10 for Pafos, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Omonia Nicosia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Omonia Nicosia win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Omonia Nicosia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pafos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Omonia Nicosia
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 4-1 (W)
Pafos
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 0-1 Pafos (Super Cup)
- 2026-05-06T16:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 2-0 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2026-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 2-0 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2026-02-08T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 4-2 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-10-27T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 2-1 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 3-0 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-03-29T17:30:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-3 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-03-01T17:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 2-1 Pafos (1. Division)
- 2025-02-20T17:45:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-2 Pafos (UEFA Europa Conference League)
- 2025-02-13T20:00:00.000Z · Omonia Nicosia 1-1 Pafos (UEFA Europa Conference League)
Super Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pafos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omonia Nicosia win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.