Stadion Miejski w Lomzy · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Łomża vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Łomża and 1.95 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Łomża home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 21% / 22% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Łomża and 1.95 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Łomża
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Zambrów · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Elbląg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swit · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 0-2 (L)
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigry Suwałki · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Zambrów · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 28 |
| 3 | Swit | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 23 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.