Estadio Palogrande · Referee Jonnathan Ortiz, Colombia · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Once Caldas and 1.38 for Deportes Tolima, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Once Caldas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Once Caldas win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Once Caldas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportes Tolima away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Once Caldas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Once Caldas and 1.38 for Deportes Tolima, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Once Caldas
- 2026-09-26T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Bucaramanga · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pasto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cali · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Valledupar · 1-0 (W)
Deportes Tolima
- 2026-10-03T21:05:00.000Z · H vs Chico · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:10:00.000Z · H vs America de Cali · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Once Caldas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Fe · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Once Caldas win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.