Estadio Palogrande · Analysis updated 17:11 UTC
Once Caldas W vs Orsomarso W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Once Caldas W and 1.08 for Orsomarso W, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Orsomarso W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Orsomarso W win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Once Caldas W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orsomarso W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 22% / 33% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.66 goals for Once Caldas W and 1.08 for Orsomarso W, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.0%
- 0–017.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–210.2%
Recent form
Once Caldas W
- 2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Bucaramanga W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pasto W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Llaneros W · 0-0 (D)
Orsomarso W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali W | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 61 |
| 2 | Millonarios W | 24 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | Atlético Nacional W | 24 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 48 |
| 4 | América de Cali W | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | Santa Fe W | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | La Equidad W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Internacional Palmira W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Orsomarso W | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín W | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Fortaleza W | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Atlético Bucaramanga W | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 17 |
| 12 | Llaneros W | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -22 | 13 |
| 13 | Junior W | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Santander W | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas W | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto W | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Orsomarso W win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.