Stade de la Roque 1 · Analysis updated 12:02 UTC
Onet-le-Château vs Alberes Argelès Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Onet-le-Château and 1.13 for Alberes Argelès, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Onet-le-Château the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Onet-le-Château home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alberes Argelès away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Onet-le-Château
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colomiers · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pau II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alberes Argelès · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Castanet · 4-0 (W)
Alberes Argelès
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SAG Cestas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agde · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Colomiers · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Onet-le-Château · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pau II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 2-1 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group A)
- 2025-12-13T18:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 0-2 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group A)
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 1-6 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group A)
- 2025-02-02T14:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 3-3 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group A)
- 2024-02-17T18:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 2-1 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group B)
- 2023-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 0-2 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group B)
- 2023-03-04T17:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 3-2 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group H)
- 2022-12-17T18:00:00.000Z · Onet-le-Château 2-7 Alberes Argelès (National 3 - Group H)
National 3 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarbes | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 47 |
| 2 | Canet Roussillon | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 45 |
| 3 | Colomiers | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | Onet-le-Château | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 39 |
| 5 | Pau II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Anglet Genets | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 7 | Bassin d'Arcachon Sud | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 36 |
| 8 | Toulouse II | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Castanet | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Blagnac | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29 |
| 11 | Lège-Cap-Ferret | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 28 |
| 12 | SAG Cestas | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -16 | 28 |
| 13 | Agde | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Alberes Argelès | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -16 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.