Onsala vs Galtabacks Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Onsala and 1.35 for Galtabacks, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Onsala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Onsala home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Galtabacks away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Onsala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Onsala and 1.35 for Galtabacks, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Onsala win45%

Draw24%

Galtabacks win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.1%
1–08.2%
1–27.5%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Onsala

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qviding FIF · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Astrio · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Västra Frölunda · 1-3 (L)

Galtabacks

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hestrafor · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrio · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Västra Frölunda · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Onsala · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-29T12:00:00.000Z · Onsala 1-6 Galtabacks (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)

Division 2 - Västra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	24	17	3	4	23	54
2	Dalstorps	24	13	7	4	21	46
3	Jonsered	24	12	6	6	3	42
4	Hestrafor	24	12	5	7	9	41
5	Lindome	24	11	4	9	6	37
6	Västra Frölunda	24	10	7	7	6	37
7	Böljan	24	9	7	8	4	34
8	Qviding FIF	24	10	4	10	0	34
9	Onsala	24	8	6	10	-4	30
10	Torslanda	24	7	7	10	-3	28
11	Kongahälla	24	7	6	11	-10	27
12	Åstorp	24	7	5	12	-12	26
13	Galtabacks	24	5	5	14	-8	20
14	Astrio	24	2	4	18	-35	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.