Estadio Municipal El Clariano · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Ontinyent 1931 vs Hércules II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ontinyent 1931 and 1.05 for Hércules II, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Ontinyent 1931 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ontinyent 1931 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hércules II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ontinyent 1931 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Ontinyent 1931 and 1.05 for Hércules II, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Ontinyent 1931
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal III · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buñol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Levante II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saguntino · 1-0 (W)
Hércules II
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrent · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atzeneta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Torrellano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jove Español · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Torrent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Crevillente | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Acero | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Saguntino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Buñol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Torrellano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Utiel | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.