· Analysis updated 00:00 UTC
Ontinyent 1931 vs Saguntino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Ontinyent 1931 and 1.29 for Saguntino, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Ontinyent 1931 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ontinyent 1931 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saguntino away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ontinyent 1931 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Ontinyent 1931 and 1.29 for Saguntino, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Ontinyent 1931
- 2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Torrevieja · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal III · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buñol · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Levante II · 0-2 (L)
Saguntino
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Torrevieja · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Utiel · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal III · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Acero | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Torrent | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Crevillente | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Saguntino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Buñol | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Torrellano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Utiel | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.