· Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Oostkamp vs Ninove Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Oostkamp and 1.19 for Ninove, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Oostkamp the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oostkamp win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oostkamp home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ninove away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oostkamp to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Oostkamp and 1.19 for Ninove, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Oostkamp
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Aalst · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs VW Hamme · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Virton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Oudenaarde · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HO Kalken · 0-0 (D)
Ninove
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Mechelen II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lebbeke · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs KRC Gent · 7-4 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs HO Kalken · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Oudenaarde · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eendracht Aalst | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Diksmuide | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Mechelen II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Oostkamp | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Sparta Petegem | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Voorde Appelterre | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Torhout | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Ninove | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | VW Hamme | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Lebbeke | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Londerzeel | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Zulte Waregem II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | RFC Wetteren | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | KRC Gent | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | HO Kalken | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Oudenaarde | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oostkamp win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.