Opatija vs Jarun Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Opatija and 0.80 for Jarun, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Opatija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Opatija home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jarun away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Opatija win42%

Draw32%

Jarun win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

1–016.5%
0–015.3%
1–113.2%
0–112.3%
2–08.9%

Recent form

Opatija

2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kustosija · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vukovar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Orijent 1919 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Dubrava Zagreb · 1-2 (L)

Jarun

2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Križevci · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Cibalia · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · Opatija 2-0 Jarun (First NL)
2026-01-24T13:15:00.000Z · Opatija 2-4 Jarun (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-11-28T12:30:00.000Z · Opatija 1-1 Jarun (First NL)
2025-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · Opatija 0-2 Jarun (First NL)
2025-04-04T13:50:00.000Z · Opatija 2-1 Jarun (First NL)
2024-11-24T11:30:00.000Z · Opatija 1-0 Jarun (First NL)
2024-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · Opatija 2-1 Jarun (First NL)
2022-04-30T15:00:00.000Z · Opatija 1-2 Jarun (First NL)
2021-10-30T13:00:00.000Z · Opatija 0-1 Jarun (First NL)

First NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jadran LP	7	4	2	1	5	14
2	Croatia Zmijavci	7	4	1	2	5	13
3	HNK Cibalia	7	3	4	0	3	13
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	7	4	1	2	2	13
5	Segesta Sisak	7	3	2	2	1	11
6	Mladost Ždralovi	7	3	2	2	0	11
7	Sesvete	7	3	0	4	1	9
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	3	0	4	0	9
9	Dugopolje	7	2	3	2	0	9
10	Dubrava Zagreb	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Karlovac 1919	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Orijent 1919	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Vukovar	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Opatija	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Hrvace	7	2	1	4	-5	7
16	Kustosija	7	1	3	3	-2	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.