Simply Arena · Referee L. Nehasil · Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Opava vs Dukla Praha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Opava and 1.79 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Dukla Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Opava home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dukla Praha away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dukla Praha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 35% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Opava and 1.79 for Dukla Praha, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
Opava
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hanácká · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Praha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Třinec · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Táborsko · 0-3 (L)
Dukla Praha
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Prostějov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysočina Jihlava · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Horní Ředice · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karviná | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Ústí nad Labem | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dukla Praha | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Vysočina Jihlava | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Příbram | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Slavia Praha II | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Táborsko | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Vlašim | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Baník Ostrava II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Kladno | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Opava | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Viktoria Žižkov | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 13 | Arsenal Česká Lípa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Prostějov | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Třinec | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Hanácká | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.