Estadio Jacques da Luz · Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Operario Ferroviario and 1.47 for Primavera MG, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Operario Ferroviario the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Operario Ferroviario win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Operario Ferroviario home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Primavera MG away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Operario Ferroviario to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Operario Ferroviario and 1.47 for Primavera MG, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Operario Ferroviario
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipatinga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T20:00:00.000Z · H vs CRAC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ABECAT Ouvidorense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ivinhema · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uberlandia · 1-2 (L)
Primavera MG
- 2026-06-07T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasiliense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aparecidense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Gama · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Luverdense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Inhumas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Centro-Oeste table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gama | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Rio Branco ES | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Anápolis | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Vila Nova | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Operario Ferroviario | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Araguaína | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Goianiense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Porto Vitória | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Capital Brasilia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Tocantinópolis | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Primavera MG | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Operario Ferroviario win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.