Estádio Germano Krüger · Referee Luiz Augusto Silveira Tisne, Brazil · Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Operario-PR vs São Bernardo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Operario-PR and 1.50 for São Bernardo, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Operario-PR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Operario-PR home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
São Bernardo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Operario-PR
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs CRB · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
São Bernardo
- 2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Novorizontino · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Goianiense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T22:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T22:30:00.000Z · Operario-PR 1-3 São Bernardo (Serie B)
- 2026-04-02T22:00:00.000Z · Operario-PR 2-1 São Bernardo (Serie B)
- 2023-10-08T19:00:00.000Z · Operario-PR 1-0 São Bernardo (Serie C)
- 2023-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · Operario-PR 1-2 São Bernardo (Serie C)
- 2023-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · Operario-PR 1-0 São Bernardo (Serie C)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 62 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 61 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | -6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 44 |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 16 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 42 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | -55 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.