· Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Optik Rathenow vs Lichtenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Optik Rathenow and 1.25 for Lichtenberg, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Optik Rathenow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Optik Rathenow home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lichtenberg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Optik Rathenow
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lok Stendal · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Klosterfelde · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neustrelitz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 0-1 (L)
Lichtenberg
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Anker Wismar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tennis Borussia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Makkabi · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 0-1 Lichtenberg (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
- 2025-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 2-2 Lichtenberg (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
- 2025-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 0-0 Lichtenberg (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
- 2024-08-10T12:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 0-3 Lichtenberg (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
- 2024-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 1-1 Lichtenberg (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
- 2023-09-02T11:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 0-7 Lichtenberg (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
- 2023-01-07T00:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 2-2 Lichtenberg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 2-4 Lichtenberg (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2021-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · Optik Rathenow 0-2 Lichtenberg (Regionalliga - Nordost)
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Mahlsdorf | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Reinickendorfer Fuchse | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | BAK '07 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Hertha Zehlendorf | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Siedenbollentin | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Lichtenberg | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Hansa Rostock II | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Optik Rathenow | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Anker Wismar | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Tennis Borussia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Mecklenburg Schwerin | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Lok Stendal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sparta Lichtenberg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Union Klosterfelde | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | Makkabi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Neustrelitz | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.