Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Orange County SC and 1.10 for FC Tulsa, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Orange County SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orange County SC home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Tulsa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Orange County SC win37%

Draw29%

FC Tulsa win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–012.1%
0–111.6%
0–010.5%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Orange County SC

2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Lexington · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Las Vegas Lights · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sacramento Republic · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tulsa · 1-5 (L)

FC Tulsa

2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Sacramento Republic · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · H vs New Mexico United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Brooklyn · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Phoenix Rising · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-23T02:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 1-5 FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 1-0 FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
2025-08-24T00:30:00.000Z · Orange County SC 0-1 FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
2025-05-04T02:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 2-1 FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
2024-08-10T00:30:00.000Z · Orange County SC 0-0 FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
2024-03-31T02:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 1-0 FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
2023-06-18T01:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 3-0 FC Tulsa (USL Championship)
2022-05-14T02:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 5-1 Tulsa Roughnecks (USL Championship)
2019-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 1-0 Tulsa Roughnecks (USL Championship)
2019-03-17T02:00:00.000Z · Orange County SC 3-5 Tulsa Roughnecks (USL Championship)

USL Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	16	7	5	23	55
2	Detroit City	28	14	8	6	14	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	14	4	9	19	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	12	5	11	2	41
5	Louisville City	27	11	7	9	3	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	9	12	6	2	39
7	Rhode Island	27	11	5	11	9	38
8	Miami FC	29	9	9	11	-9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	9	7	12	-2	34
10	Loudoun United	27	5	12	10	-10	27
11	Birmingham Legion	26	4	11	11	-7	23
12	Brooklyn	27	4	6	17	-28	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	-41	14
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	15	5	8	12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	14	7	7	11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	11	12	5	12	45
4	Lexington	28	13	5	10	16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	11	10	7	7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	11	8	9	3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	10	9	9	-7	39
8	San Antonio	28	9	12	7	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	9	9	10	-3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	10	6	12	-4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	8	11	9	-2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	5	6	17	-20	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.