Francistown Stadium · Analysis updated 18:14 UTC
Orapa United vs Black Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Orapa United and 0.99 for Black Lions, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Orapa United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Orapa United home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Black Lions away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orapa United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Orapa United and 0.99 for Black Lions, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Orapa United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs TAFIC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nico United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 0-0 (D)
Black Lions
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Green · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sua Flamingoes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Calendar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Centre Chiefs · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Centre Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Galaxy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.